Film critics Carrie and Chris on who will – and who should – win the 92nd Academy Awards
The 92nd Academy Awards air tomorrow, Sunday, February 9th, on ABC at 5:00 pm PST. Once again, Spinning Platters film critics Carrie Kahn and Chris Piper share their predictions — and hopes — for the major categories. A lot of the winners feel like locks, based on earlier award season wins, but, honestly, we’d rather have some upsets to make for an interesting show then have all our predictions come true. Fingers crossed for some liveliness!
BEST PICTURE:
Nominees: The Irishman/Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood/1917/Marriage Story/Parasite/Joker/Ford v Ferrari/Jojo Rabbit/Little Women
Carrie: Will Win: 1917 — The sweeping war epic is the type of safe, controversy-free film that Academy voters love. Should Win: Marriage Story — Number four on my Top 10 list last year, Noah Baumbach’s searing divorce drama still haunts.
Chris: Will Win: Once Upon a Time in… Hollywood — Tarantino has yet another subject worthy of his revisionist impulse, and one that allows him to feature a subject — the passing of the old Hollywood torch — that will burn brightly with the Academy. Tarantino is our era’s Martin Scorsese — always an Oscar bridesmaid, never an Oscar bride — and since this very well could be his last film, Academy voters will want to give him his long overdue validation. Should Win: Jojo Rabbit — Taika Waititi’s ink-black comedy takes huge chances by featuring a Hitler youth who unwittingly harbors, then befriends, a Jewish teen hiding behind the walls of his mother’s tidy German household. It delivers on all fronts, and has an ending for the ages, plus national treasure Sam Rockwell.
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING:
Nominees: Martin Scorsese, The Irishman/Todd Phillips, Joker/Sam Mendes, 1917/Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood/Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Carrie: Will Win: Mendes, 1917 — Mendes won the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Award, a fairly reliable predictor in this category. Should Win: Ho, Parasite — Per above, Mendes directed the safe, palatable choice, but Ho’s picture (#6 on my 2019 Top 10 List) is the more audacious nominee.
Chris: Will Win: Phillips, Joker — Tough call. 1917 has a lot of momentum, and it’s never wise to discount Martin Scorsese, and Boon Joon Ho’s Parasite has a wealth of impressive performances. But because Joker will not win Best Picture, the Academy will reward Todd Phillips for his gutsy vision to turn a supervillain origin story into a mostly successful exploration of alienation and psychosis. Should Win: Tarantino, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood — As has been his norm, Tarantino knew exactly what he wanted from every aspect of the film, and the results, from acting, to cinematography, to editing, down to the period-perfect songs and announcements on car radios, could only have come from his total control.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood/Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory/Adam Driver, Marriage Story/Joaquin Phoenix, Joker/Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Carrie: Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix — Phoenix has swept all the other relevant awards with his showy, scenery-chewing performance, making his Oscar win the surest bet in years. Should Win: Adam Driver — Emotional turmoil is harder to convey without using overt physicality, and Driver really should be rewarded for his nuanced, brilliantly raw portrayal of a narcissistic artist coming to terms with the end of his marriage. Also, did anyone besides your parents actually see The Two Popes!?
Chris: Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix — The creation of Arthur Fleck is a remarkable achievement, but, more importantly, the film has grossed over a billion dollars, and Phoenix hasn’t won in four nominations. He has, though, recently won the 2020 BAFTA, Golden Globe, and SAG acting prizes, giving him momentum. Also, I’m sure ABC will have the bleep button ready for his acceptance speech. Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio — DiCaprio’s performance as an ungracefully aging movie star is definitely the best of his career. The performance shows a character who is never completely comfortable in any setting, or in his own skin, and a man increasingly uneasy in a world changing under his feet.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Nominees: Cynthia Erivo, Harriet/Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story/Saoirse Ronan, Little Women/Charlize Theron, Bombshell/Renée Zellweger, Judy
Carrie: Will Win: Renée Zellweger; Should Win: Cynthia Erivo. Like Joaquin Phoenix for Best Actor, Zellweger has dominated the early awards, and her Oscar here seems like a foregone conclusion. I’d love to see Erivo pull an upset, as she was easily the best thing in Kasi Lemmons’s Harriet Tubman biopic.
Chris: Will Win: Renée Zellweger — Judy checks big Oscar boxes: aging; damaged Hollywood star belting it out one last time; comeback for former ’90s It Girl Zellweger; and LA and London in the late ’60s and early ’70s. Zellweger’s performance is thin, but boy do those musical numbers shine! Should Win: Scarlett Johansson — 2019 saw ScarJo finding a new gear, with strong performances in both JoJo Rabbit and in Noah Baumbach’s finely balanced divorce drama. Her performance portrays a character that emotionally echoes a younger, less experienced real-life Scarlett Johannson.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Nominees: Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell/Laura Dern, Marriage Story/Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit/Florence Pugh, Little Women/Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Carrie: Will Win: Laura Dern; Should Win: Florence Pugh. With multiple wins under her belt already, Dern is another given, so this category may be a snooze. I’m rooting for Florence Pugh, though, whose star is rapidly rising, and who gives the most complicated and interesting performance of all her Little Women co-stars (including Saoirse Ronan, whose Best Actress nomination puzzles me).
Chris: Will Win: Laura Dern; Should Win: Laura Dern. It’s a SAG, BAFTA, and Golden Globe lock for the three-time nominee, and she deserves to win, as her performance as a vulpine divorce lawyer should scare anyone in a troubled marriage to make that date night happen… now!
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Nominees: Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood/Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes/Al Pacino, The Irisman/Joe Pesci, The Irishman/Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Carrie: Will Win: Brad Pitt — Pitt’s charming speeches on the awards circuit — which he’s been dominating — have made him the hands-on favorite to win here. Even if his win won’t be a surprise, at least we have his acceptance speech to look forward to. Should Win: Tom Hanks — I actually think Pitt does deserve the award, as his performance is the only good thing in Tarantino’s otherwise overly long, self-congratulatory, and misogynistic ode to Hollywood, but I’d love to see Hanks take this one in a surprise win. We often take Hanks for granted, but his portrayal of Mister Rogers is an exceptional showcase of quiet, understated acting that packs an emotional punch.
Chris: Will Win: Brad Pitt; Should Win: Brad Pitt — Pitt’s performance is a master class in physical, facial, and emotional understatement, and perfectly balances DiCaprio. Clearly, Tarantino wanted to create a character that perfectly fit with Pitt’s ability to hold our attention with that face, and deliver lines just slightly behind the beat. Also, Pitt has never won an Oscar in two tries, and has won the 2020 BAFTA, Golden Globe, and SAG Awards. I’d bet the house on this one.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
Nominees: I Lost My Body/How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World/Klaus/Missing Link/Toy Story 4
Carrie: Will Win: Toy Story 4; Should Win: Toy Story 4. Pixar nails it in this fourth Toy Story installment that still has new things to say, and holds up as well as well as the original.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Nominees: The Cave/American Factory/The Edge of Democracy/For Sama/Honeyland
Carrie: Will Win: American Factory; Should Win: American Factory. The first film from the Obamas’ production company, American Factory explores the changing American blue collar workplace with unflinching honesty, some humor, and profound empathy for all those trying to revive and maintain a struggling way of American life.
ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Nominees: Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman/Roger Deakins, 1917/Lawrence Sher, Joker/Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse/Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Carrie: Will Win: Deakins, 1917; Should Win: Deakins, 1917. Deakins is a legend, and his masterful, one-take work in 1917 viscerally puts the audience in the middle of the action like no other war film before it.
Chris: Will Win: Deakins, 1917 — It’s been the surprise awards hit of the season, and it won’t win for Best Picture or Directing, so the Academy will hand Roger Deakins his second Oscar in 15 — count ’em — 15 nominations. Should Win: Richardson, Once Upon a Time in… Hollywood — Tarantino went to incredible lengths to get his paean to lost Hollywood to actually look like a long forgotten Hollywood film, a feat that has been all but forgotten this awards season.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM:
Nominees: Honeyland (North Macedonia)/Corpus Christi (Poland)/Les Misérables (France)/Pain and Glory (Spain)/Parasite (South Korea)
Carrie: Will Win: Parasite; Should Win: Parasite. I mean, come on. No contest here.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Nominees: Steven Zaillian, The Irishman/Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit/Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker/Greta Gerwig, Little Women/Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes
Carrie: Will Win: Waititi, Jojo Rabbit — Fresh from its win at the Writers Guild Awards and the BAFTAs, Waititi’s divisive Hitler satire has the edge. Should Win: Gerwig, Little Women — Gerwig’s nomination here feels like a consolation prize for her absence in the Directing category, but her take on the Alcott classic is engaging and innovative, and deserves attention.
Chris: Will Win: Gerwig, Little Women; Should Win: Gerwig, Little Women — It’s the winner, mostly because Little Women was shut out of the bigger categories, but also because it’s a script that takes a story of four hothouse daughters variously searching for lads, love, and independence, and cleverly turns it into a commentary on women’s equality struggles.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Nominees: Rian Johnson, Knives Out/Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns, 1917/Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story/Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in… Hollywood/Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won, Parasite
Carrie: Will Win: Ho and Won, Parasite — This race is one of the few that are too close to call; it’s a toss up between Parasite and Hollywood, but Parasite is the better script, and I’m guessing Academy voters will recognize that. Should Win: Baumbach, Marriage Story — I’ve got my own tie here, as I also think Parasite is deserving for its bold ingenuity. But the emotionally wrenching Marriage Story stayed with me longer, and that’s the sign of a strong, meaningful screenplay.
Chris: Will Win: Baumbach, Marriage Story — The ultra-realistic script gives not one, not two, not three, not four, but five actors five characters with many meaty lines and lots of well-paced character arcs. Should Win: Ho and Won, Parasite — An utterly original premise that deftly balances an ensemble cast with a tricky plot and a wonderfully ambiguous conclusion. But it will win Best International Film, leaving the Academy free to award Marriage Story the Oscar.
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And if you’ve missed any of the Best Picture nominees, the folks over at Honest Trailers have prepared their annual hilarious take on the nominees, which is a great cheat sheet:
