Film critics Carrie and Chris on who will – and who should – win the 91st Academy Awards
The 91st Academy Awards air this Sunday, February 24th, on ABC at 5:00 pm PST (with the requisite pre-show fashion assessments starting hours before). As they did last year, Spinning Platters film critics Carrie Kahn and Chris Piper share their predictions – and hopes – for the major categories. Guild awards – often harbingers of Oscars to come – have been all over the map this year, so there may actually be some genuine surprises. Tune in on Sunday to see how things play out, and to find out if we correctly read the minds of Academy voters.
BEST PICTURE:
Nominees: Black Panther/BlacKkKlansman/Bohemian Rhapsody/The Favourite/Green Book/Roma/A Star is Born/Vice
Carrie: Will Win: Green Book — Despite its controversies, it’s the type of movie Academy voters love, and it won the Producers Guild Award. Should Win: Black Panther — Innovative, imaginative, inclusive, and a blockbuster to boot.
Chris: Will Win: The Favourite — An irresistible combination of story, dialog, character, costumes, and comedy. Should Win: Roma — Evokes a lost era in filmmaking, where pace and setting and tone matter as much as story and character.
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING:
Nominees: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma/Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite/Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman/Adam McKay, Vice/Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Carrie: Will Win: Cuarón, Roma — Cuarón is the man to beat here, having already won the Directors Guild Award, the BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and Golden Globe. Should Win: Pawlikowski, Cold War — Pawlikowski’s exquisite, old fashioned cinematic love letter to his parents probably would have garnered more attention had it not been overshadowed by Cuarón’s bigger and brassier similarly black and white nostalgia piece.
Chris: Will Win: Lee, BlacKkKlansman — Lee is our generation’s Robert Altman. He keeps making the films he wants to make, and, every once in a while, they resonate with a larger audience. BlacKkKlansman is one of those films, and 2018 was one of those years. Should Win: McKay, Vice — To take Vice beyond the talking-about-ideas-over-wine stage to a film that’s so fully realized is an astounding achievement, but McKay’s anger is too white-hot, his message too deeply cynical, and his approach too similar to Michael Moore’s to make Academy voters comfortable.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Nominees: Christian Bale, Vice/Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born/Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate/Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody/Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Carrie: Will Win: Rami Malek — The Academy loves physical transformations, and Malek’s embodiment of Freddie Mercury is easily the best thing in an otherwise mediocre biopic. Should Win: Viggo Mortensen — Mortensen also transformed himself, but his more thoughtful, nuanced performance isn’t as showy as Malek’s, which may cost him.
Chris: Will Win: Rami Malek — He’s got a hugely successful film, a huge resurgence of Queen-o-philia, and a huge set of teeth going for him. Should Win: Christian Bale — Watching any scene with him is like stepping into 2004. Unbelievable transformation to Cheney.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio, Roma/Glenn Close, The Wife/Olivia Colman, The Favourite/Lady Gaga, A Star is Born/Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Carrie: Will Win: Glenn Close; Should Win: Glenn Close. That Close, now a seven-time Oscar nominee, has yet to actually win, makes her a public and Academy favorite. That her performance in The Wife actually is the most deserving of this year’s Award is just icing on the cake.
Chris: Will Win: Olivia Colman; Should Win: Olivia Colman. Colman’s performance manages to cast one of Britain’s most dysfunctional sovereigns in a sympathetic light, with plenty of character depth, as well as a (welcome) #MeToo trend of pushing the male subjects to supporting roles. The easy and smart money is on her for the win.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Nominees: Amy Adams, Vice/Marina de Tavira, Roma/Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk/Emma Stone, The Favourite/Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Carrie: Will Win: Regina King; Should Win: Regina King. Stone and Weisz will cancel each other out, and Adams and de Tavira’s small roles make their nominations surprising. Only King truly holds her own, creating an indelible mark as a determined and loving mother fighting for her family.
Chris: Will Win: Rachel Weisz; Should Win: Rachel Weisz. Two hours of a slow, painful, inevitable, and fascinating descent into every kind of humiliation, all in one performance. A joy to experience a master at the top of her craft take on a very difficult role, and absolutely nail it.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Nominees: Mahershala Ali/Green Book/Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman/Sam Elliott, A Star is Born/Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?/Sam Rockwell, Vice
Carrie: Will Win: Mahershala Ali — As Chris says below, Ali’s already earned plenty of accolades; at this rate, there’s no reason Oscar won’t follow. Should Win: Richard E. Grant — Grant’s standout performance as Melissa McCarthy’s witty, alcoholic compatriot in a smaller, lesser seen film unfortunately will most likely be overlooked by Academy voters.
Chris: Will Win: Mahershala Ali — It’s a two-note performance in a thin civil rights fable, but it checks all the current political boxes. Though he won two years ago for a much better performance in the much better Moonlight (which may hamper his 2019 chances), he’s already earned the BAFTA, Golden Globe, and SAG awards. Fire up the steamroller. Should Win: Sam Elliott — He’s been acting since 1967, and has enough film and TV credits to merit his own search engine, yet his awards shelf is nearly empty. Yes, he tends to play the same type of character, but with a riveting gaze and a bedrock voice. His performance in A Star is Born defines a good supporting character and performance.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
Nominees: Incredibles 2/Isle of Dogs/Mirai/Ralph Breaks the Internet/Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Carrie: Will Win: Incredibles 2; Should Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. The Academy loves Pixar, but Spider-Man is the better, more original movie.
Chris: Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse; Should Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. A black Spider-Man? Hell yes, a black Spider-Man! The film breathes all kinds of new life into the genre, and has an animation style that actually makes looking at a 3D film without 3D glasses a cool thing.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Nominees: Free Solo/Hale County This Morning, This Evening/Minding the Gap/Of Fathers and Sons/RBG
Carrie: Will Win: Free Solo; Should Win: Free Solo. An edge-of-your-seat thriller as well as a fascinating character study, the rock climbing doc asks hard questions about art, relationships, personal responsibility, and human nature that elevate it from being just another extreme-sports story.
Chris: Will Win: Free Solo; Should Win: Free Solo. Takes the well-worn trope of the intrepid adventurer and pulls back to show effects on the lives of those around the “hero”, much in the vein of masters Ross McElwee or Nick Broomfield.
ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Nominees: Robbie Ryan, The Favourite/Caleb Deschanel, Never Look Away/Alfonso Cuarón, Roma/Matthew Libatique, A Star is Born/Lukasz Žal, Cold War
Carrie: Will Win: Cuarón, Roma; Should Win: Cuarón, Roma. Roma is like a coffee table book come to life. While many have debated its narrative strengths, that it’s the year’s most hauntingly beautiful film is inarguable.
Chris: Will Win: Robbie Ryan, The Favourite — I’m sure the camera crews got plenty of exercise running behind Olivia Colman and Emma Stone with their cameras and wide-angle lenses at ankle height, and the effect is worth it. We see and feel the dizzying ride felt by those rising, those falling, and those controlling. Should Win: Cuarón, Roma — It’s a shame most of the 100 people in this country that will see Roma will see it on a TV. Its carefully constructed frames and shots (especially its use of extreme pans) should be experienced in a theater.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE:
Nominees: Capernaum (Lebanon)/Cold War (Poland)/Never Look Away (Germany)/Roma (Mexico)/Shoplifters (Japan)
Carrie: Will Win: Roma — Beyond a given. Did Academy members even know there were other nominees? Roma‘s omnipresence makes that seem unlikely. Should Win: Cold War — See Best Director comments above, and – ditto.
Chris: Will Win: Roma; Should Win: Roma. Hedging bets here, since I know it won’t win Best Picture, and it’s one helluva picture. I’ll slot in here as well, so at least it gets something.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Nominees: Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters, A Star is Born/Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs/Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman/Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk/Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Carrie: Will Win: Holofcener and Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me? — Fresh from its win at the Writers Guild Awards, Holofcener and Whitty’s smart screenplay about an unlikable protagonist earns points for audacity and originality. Should Win: Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk — It’s a testament to Jenkins’s adept, lyrical use of language that he’s able to do what many thought was impossible: capture the rhythm and beauty of James Baldwin’s lovely, poetic prose.
Chris: Will Win: Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk — A much stronger visual film than in its script; nevertheless, Beale Street is winning all over the place, and the trend should continue with the Academy. Should Win: Coen Bros., The Ballad of Buster Scruggs — The Coens continue their True Grit mash-up of Shakespearean drama set in the Wild West, with liberal additions of Zane Grey and Louis L’Amour, along with a structure that provides a smooth bridge between theaters and Netflix.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Nominees: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite/Paul Schrader, First Reformed/Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly, Green Book/Alfonso Cuarón, Roma/Adam McKay, Vice
Carrie: Will Win: Davis and McNamara, The Favourite — The Favourite wasn’t eligible for a Writers Guild Award; had it been, it probably would have won. Its snarky, shade-fueled script seems to be loved by all (except me, I might add), and held up as some sort of pinnacle of edgy wit. Should Win: Schrader, First Reformed — Schrader continues wrestling with the philosophical questions he first posed in his Raging Bull and Taxi Driver screenplays in this intense, deeply introspective, and wholly unique tale of a minister’s crisis of faith. (Side rant: That Ethan Hawke wasn’t nominated for Best Actor for bringing Schrader’s brilliant script to life is a travesty, but that’s a topic for another time).
Chris: Will Win: Davis and McNamara, The Favourite; Should Win: Davis and McNamara, The Favourite. In a film where dialog is everything, the screenwriting team here manages layer upon layer upon layer of subtlety and depth in scene after scene.
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