Film critics Carrie and Chad on who will – and who should – win the 98th Academy Awards
The 98th Academy Awards air tomorrow, Sunday, March 15th, live on ABC and Hulu at 4:00 pm PST, with comedian Conan O’Brien returning to host for the second year in a row. As always, our Spinning Platters film critics Carrie Kahn and Chad Liffmann make their major category predictions in the hopes of Oscar pool glory. Try your own luck here, and may the best film fan win!
BEST PICTURE:
Nominees: Bugonia / F1 / Frankenstein / Hamnet / Marty Supreme / One Battle After Another / The Secret Agent / Sentimental Value / Sinners / Train Dreams
Carrie: Will Win: One Battle After Another; Should Win: Sinners
This race is the one to watch, and I’d love to see a Sinners upset. But my instinct says the odds are in Battle‘s favor.
Chad: Will Win: One Battle After Another; Should Win: One Battle After Another
Paul Thomas Anderson’s timely and masterful comedic thriller represents a large assortment of artists operating at the top of their game, from the film’s cast to its technical departments. PTA’s nominated films have failed to win the top honor before (There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread, Licorice Pizza), but Battle feels not only earned, but deserving.
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING:
Nominees: Ryan Coogler, Sinners / Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another / Chloé Zhao, Hamnet / Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme / Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Carrie: Will Win: Anderson, One Battle After Another; Should Win: Coogler, Sinners
The Bay Area’s Coogler deserves it, but with the oft-nominated but not yet lauded Anderson taking the BAFTA, Golden Globe, and the Directors Guild Award, look for him to finally earn his elusive prize.
Chad: Will Win: Anderson, One Battle After Another; Should Win: Anderson, One Battle After Another
The same argument for Best Picture applies here. Coogler and Panahi (who wasn’t nominated) are also deserving, but PTA’s controlled handling of adapting Pynchon’s Vineland with such extraordinary care, craftsmanship, and tonal brilliance is unmatched this year.
ACHIEVEMENT IN CASTING:
Nominees: Nina Gold, Hamnet / Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme / Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle After Another / Gabriel Domingues, The Secret Agent / Francine Maisler, Sinners
Carrie: Will Win: Maisler, Sinners; Should Win: Gold, Hamnet
This new award recognizes the process of assembling a cast that perfectly fits the film’s roles. Sinners took the Screen Actors Guild (SAG)’s Best Ensemble award, so it seems natural voters may reward it here, too. But the Hamnet ensemble includes exceptional child actors who carry the film just as much as their adult co-stars, which is no small feat.
Chad: Will Win: Maisler, Sinners; Should Win: Maisler, Sinners
All the nominees here deserve this inaugural Oscar, but Sinners located a brilliant screen talent in Miles Caton, and filled the story around him with immense talent. It’s no wonder that Sinners has three acting nominations and easily could’ve garnered more.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Nominees: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme / Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another / Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon / Michael B. Jordan, Sinners / Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Carrie: Will Win: Michael B. Jordan; Should Win: Michael B. Jordan
Jordan does double duty, playing two different roles in one picture, and making them each wholly distinct. Golden Globe winner Chalamet is still to young, and his recent publicity flops haven’t done him any favors. DiCaprio’s already won and Moura’s too unknown. If Hawke were finally rewarded, that would be amazing. But with Jordan’s recent SAG win, I’m betting the night will go his way.
Chad: Will Win: Michael B. Jordan; Should Win: Wagner Moura
Easily the most impressive race in this year’s awards season. All five nominees could easily win the Oscar against the normal Best Actor field in other years. This year, however, is top-to-bottom brilliance. Moura gives a sensational performance as a teacher in hiding amid the tail end of Brazil’s late 1970s military dictatorship. However, Michael B. Jordan’s late awards season surge with his powerfully subtle yet emotionally distinguishable twins in Sinners, Smoke and Stack, has placed him at pole position.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Nominees: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet / Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You / Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue / Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value / Emma Stone, Bugonia
Carrie: Will Win: Jessie Buckley; Should Win: Jessie Buckley
Buckley has dominated all awards season for her stellar, heartbreaking performance, and barring a huge upset, she’s a lock here.
Chad: Will Win: Jessie Buckley; Should Win: Rose Byrne
Buckley is going to win. No other award this year is as set in stone. However, Byrne’s underseen performance in If I had Legs I’d Kick You redefines what it means to give a raw, anxious, and completely spellbinding performance.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Nominees: Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value / Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value / Amy Madigan, Weapons / Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners / Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Carrie: Will Win: Amy Madigan; Should Win: Amy Madigan
This race is one of the year’s closest: Taylor took the Golden Globe, Mosaku scored the BAFTA, and Madigan nabbed the Critics’ Choice and the SAG. Fanning and Lilleaas have been empty handed so far, but if they were to upset here, I’d be surprised. The race is tight, but Madigan should collect gold for her unforgettable and transformative turn as creepy Aunt Gladys.
Chad: Will Win: Amy Madigan; Should Win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Lilleaas is brilliant in Sentimental Value as a younger sister mostly pushed aside into a “normal” life by her filmmaker father and actor older sister. Lilleaas is the heart and soul of the film. But, the Oscars love to award a villanous performance, and long-time screen veteran Amy Madigan’s unrecognizable and immediately iconic turn as twisted Aunt Gladys in the box office hit Weapons is too fun to ignore.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Nominees: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another / Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein / Delroy Lindo, Sinners / Sean Penn, One Battle After Another / Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Carrie: Will Win: Sean Penn; Should Win: Sean Penn
Another race where I’d be happy to see any of the nominees win, but Penn edges out the others for his absolutely ferocious performance as the deranged Col. Lockjaw.
Chad: Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård; Should Win: Sean Penn
Penn, despite his controversial persona, has once again reminded audiences of his acting prowess as Colonel Lockjaw in Battle. There’s even a strong chance he’ll win the Oscar. But, I think the sentimental favorite (pun intended) is Skarsgård, who is long overdue and well deserving for his emotional portrayal as an emotionally distant filmmaker father.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
Nominees: Arco/ Zootopia 2 / Little Amélie or the Character of Rain / KPop Demon Hunters / Elio
Carrie: Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters; Should Win: Elio
KPop has the strongest momentum and fans, but of I’ll always champion Emeryville’s Pixar offering.
Chad: Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters; Should Win: KPop Demon Hunters
KPop is gonna be, gonna be golden!
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Nominees: The Alabama Solution / Come See Me in the Good Light / Mr. Nobody Against Putin / Cutting Through Rocks / The Perfect Neighbor
Carrie: Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor; Should Win: Come See Me in the Good Light
All worthy contenders dealing with weighty issues, with my favorite being poet Andrea Gibson’s cancer battle story Good Light. But I think Netflix’s Perfect Neighbor, which received a slew of prior industry noms, will prevail.
Chad: Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor; Should Win: No preference
This year, a lot of good films were left out. The Perfect Neighbor is a heartbreaking story of a ‘stand your ground’ Florida law ending tragically, told almost entirely with police body cam footage. The film is devastating, which seems to be the primary criteria for the five films this year.
ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Nominees: Dan Laustsen, Frankenstein / Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme / Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another / Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners / Adolpho Veloso, Train Dreams
Carrie: Will Win: Bauman, One Battle After Another; Should Win: Arkapaw, Sinners
Battle won both the American and British cinematography guild awards, as well as the BAFTA, so it’s the frontrunner. But I’m rooting for Arkapaw, who’s already made history as the first woman of color nominated in this category. Battle has some cool California scenes, sure, but Sinners is beautifully shot from start to finish.
Chad: Will Win: Bauman, One Battle After Another; Should Win: Bauman, One Battle After Another
The car chase that finishes Battle is the best shot and edited sequence of the year. That’s just five minutes of an immaculately shot two-and-a-half hour thriller filled with wide shots, extended one-takes, quick cuts, and moving close-ups.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM:
Nominees: Norway, Sentimental Value / Brazil, The Secret Agent/ Spain, Sirat / France, It Was Just an Accident / Tunisia, The Voice of Hind Rajab
Carrie: Will Win: Sentimental Value; Should Win: The Secret Agent
For the same reason I predicted I’m Still Here would win last year: this year’s Brazilian historical political drama is similarly eerily prescient and affecting. But I’m guessing voters will go for Norway’s more accessible family drama.
Chad: Will Win: The Secret Agent; Should Win: The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value is great, and deserves a few acting awards, but the unforgettable multi-genre political mashup that is The Secret Agent is the most deserving of this award, as a whole film. The Secret Agent requires multiple viewings to fully grasp the unexplained metaphors and time jumps at play, but that makes its script, direction, and overall emotional payoff all the more intellectual and rewarding. Plus, never count out the ever-growing power of Brazil in the Oscars (see last year’s I’m Still Here nominations and wins).
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another / Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell, Hamnet / Will Tracy, Bugonia / Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein / Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams
Carrie: Will Win: Anderson, One Battle After Another; Should Win: Zhao and O’Farrell, Hamnet
Anderson’s adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s novel is the favorite, but Zhao’s rendering of O’Farrell’s book is more memorable and haunting.
Chad: Will Win: Anderson, One Battle After Another; Should Win: Anderson, One Battle After Another
It’s going to Battle. Paul Thomas Anderson has five previous writing nominations and no wins. It’s time.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Nominees: Ryan Coogler, Sinners / Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value / Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme / Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident / Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon
Carrie: Will Win: Coogler, Sinners; Should Win: Coogler, Sinners
In the year’s most original screenplay, Coogler combined vampires with a story about generational trauma, music and cultural history, and the importance of family. He’ll be recognized for his creative feat.
Chad: Will Win: Coogler, Sinners; Should Win: Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
It’s going to be Sinners. Coogler’s musical horror period piece is written brilliantly, even if the vampire fighting is a bit cliched. Having said that, Panahi risked literal jail time to secretly write and film in Iran. His script takes on authoritarian trauma, forgiveness, and generational torment to shatteringly emotional heights.
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And here’s a bit of Conan to get you excited!
