Who will – and who should – win the 95th Academy Awards
The 95th Academy Awards air tomorrow, Sunday March 12th, on ABC at 5:00 pm PST (Don’t forget to spring forward so you don’t miss the beginning!). Tune in to see not only who will take home Oscar gold, but also how host Jimmy Kimmel will handle the elephant in the Dolby Theater – last year’s infamous Will Smith/Chris Rock moment, AKA the Slap Heard ‘Round the World. Whether we get any similar jaw-dropping moments this year is anyone’s guess, but, in the meantime, there’s always your good old-fashioned Oscar pool to keep you entertained. See how your predictions line up with mine, below:
BEST PICTURE:
Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front/Avatar: The Way of Water/Everything Everywhere All at Once/The Banshees of Inisherin/The Fabelmans/Top Gun: Maverick/Triangle of Sadness/Tár
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once — With the Producers Guild and Screen Actors Guild cast awards already under its belt, this critical darling and audience favorite is poised to take home Oscar’s biggest prize. Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin — Yes Everything Everywhere is totally unique — almost dizzyingly so — and Banshees is the quieter picture, but it packs just as much of an emotional wallop, and does so more subtly and soulfully.
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING:
Nominees: Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin/Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once/Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans/Todd Field, Tár/Ruben Ostland, Triangle of Sadness
Will Win: Kwan and Scheinert (AKA The Daniels); Should Win: Martin McDonagh — The Daniels won the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Award, usually a fairly reliable predictor in this category, plus the Independent Spirit and Critics Choice awards. They – and their film – are on a roll that won’t be stopped by any of these other contenders, no matter how worthy.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Nominees: Austin Butler, Elvis/Coin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin/Brendan Fraser, The Whale/Paul Mescal, Aftersun/Bill Nighy, Living
Will Win: Austin Butler; Should Win: Paul Mescal. Butler has dominated the awards circuit because of his showy performance (and much discussed long-lasting “Elvis voice”). Mescal, in contrast, is a virtuoso of tightly-wound restraint and repressed pain in his heartbreaking turn as a young father.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Nominees: Cate Blanchett, Tár/Ana de Armas, Blonde/Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie/Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans/Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Michelle Yeoh; Should Win: Michelle Yeoh. Yeoh is long due for an Oscar, and, based on all the other prizes she’s collected so far, her colleagues agree. Yeoh’s biggest competition here is probably Cate Blanchett, who paints an indelible portrait of a rapidly unraveling, narcissistic conductor. But Yeoh has nothing to fear from Williams, who is woefully miscast as a Jewish mother in Steven Spielberg’s autobiographical drama, from de Armas, whose film was critically panned, or from Riseborough, whose film nobody saw.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Nominees: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever/Hong Chau, The Whale/Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin/Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once/Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis; Should Win: Kerry Condon. This category is one of the toughest to predict this year. Curtis is Hollywood royalty who has never won an Oscar, making her the sentimental favorite, but having another nominee from the same film could work against her, as the two cancel each other out. I think her film’s momentum will help carry her to victory, however, even though Condon’s work in Banshees is more emotionally resonant.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Nominees: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin/Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway/Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans/Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin/Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan — Another awards season favorite, Quan has charmed audiences and colleagues alike with his former-kid-actor-makes-good success. Should Win: Barry Keoghan — Keoghan brings a poignant richness to his part as Banshees misunderstood town fool. If either he or Quan wins, I’ll be happy. If Judd Hirsch takes it for his over-the-top scenery chewing in The Fabelmans, though, I’ll know something is deeply wrong with Academy voters. And did anyone even see Causeway? Maybe the same folks who saw To Leslie?
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Nominees: All That Breathes/All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Fire of Love/Navalny/A House Made of Splinters
Will Win: Navalny; Should Win: Fire of Love. Another race in which I’d be happy if either my “Will” or “Should” takes the statue. Both are equally powerful and deserving. Navalny is probably the more timely, but Miranda July’s narration in Fire of Love will haunt your dreams.
ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Nominees: James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front/Darius Khondji, Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths/Mandy Walker, Elvis/Roger Deakins, Empire of Light/Florian Hoffmeister, Tár
Will Win: Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front; Should Win: Deakins, Empire of Light. War movies typically have the advantage, but what Deakins does with light and shadow is beyond lovely.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM:
Nominees: Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)/All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)/EO (Poland)/Close (Belgium)/The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front; Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front. Since All Quiet won’t prevail in the Best Picture category, it likely will win here. My guess is that Academy voters won’t think the competition has the same gravitas as the World War I picture.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Nominees: Edward Berger, Lesley Patterson, and Ian Stokell, All Quiet on the Western Front/Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery/Kazuo Ishiguro, Living/Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Peter Graig, and Justin Marks, Top Gun: Maverick/Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Will Win: Polley, Women Talking — Fresh from its win at the Writers Guild Awards, Polley’s intense religious sect drama has the edge. Should Win: Ishiguro, Living. Ishiguro’s affecting story of a stiff-upper-lip English bureaucrat trying to bring meaning to his life before its close wrecks you with its unforgettable tenderness.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Nominees: Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans/Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin/Todd Field, Tár/Ruben Ostland, Triangle of Sadness/Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once– Another Writers Guild Award winner, Everything Everywhere will continue its awards dominance by taking the prize here as well. Should Win: McDonagh, Banshees. Although it lacks the everything-but-the-kitchen-sink flamboyance of The Daniels’ screenplay, McDonagh’s story is just as brilliantly original. Its darkly comic edge makes it all the more mournfully striking.
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And if you’ve missed any of the Best Picture nominees, as always, Honest Trailers has your back with the world’s funniest (and probably most accurate) take on the nominees:
