Who will – and who should – win the 94th Academy Awards
The 94th Academy Awards air tonight, Sunday, March 27th, on ABC at 5:00 pm PST. After a pandemic pause last year, I’m back this year to share my predictions — and hopes — for the major categories. The show could pique more interest this year, since the controversial decision was made to shorten the program by moving eight of the 23 categories off screen. Protests may happen, and hosts Regina Hall, Amy Schumer, and Wanda Sykes are sure to have some pointed commentary. Tune in to see how it all plays out, and to see close I (and you!) get to picking the winners.
BEST PICTURE:
Nominees: Belfast/CODA/Don’t Look Up/Drive My Car/Dune/King Richard/Licorice Pizza/Nightmare Alley/The Power of the Dog/West Side Story
Will Win: CODA — The Sundance winner took the both the Producers Guild and the Screen Actors Guild awards this year, making it a front runner for Oscar. Should Win: The Power of the Dog — Jane Campion’s modern take on the myth of the West and its attendant toxic masculinity has had its share of controversy, but ultimately is the stronger picture.
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING:
Nominees: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast/Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza/Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog/Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car/Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Will Win and Should Win: Jane Campion — Campion won the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Award, a fairly reliable predictor in this category, plus the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and Critics Choice awards. The Oscar will complete her deserved sweep.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Nominees: Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos/Will Smith, King Richard/Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog/Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!/Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Will Win and Should Win: Will Smith — Like Campion, Smith has already dominated the awards circuit, thanks to his stellar turn as champion-maker Richard Williams. This year marks Smith’s third Best Actor nomination, and no doubt the Academy will finally see fit to crown the former Fresh Prince.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Nominees: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye/Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter/Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers/Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos/Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Will Win: Jessica Chastain; Should Win: Olivia Colman. This race is one of the tightest: my “Will” and “Should” could just as easily be reversed, since both actresses are exceptional. Honestly, as long as Stewart doesn’t win for her overwrought performance in the insipid Spencer, I’ll be happy.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Nominees: Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter/Ariana DeBose, West Side Story/Judi Dench, Belfast/Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog/Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Will Win: Ariana DeBose; Should Win: Aunjanue Ellis OR Jessie Buckley. DeBose leads on the awards circuit, which gives her the edge. But both Ellis and Buckley gave much more memorable and affecting performances.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Nominees: Ciaran Hinds, Belfast/Troy Kotsur, CODA/Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog/J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos/Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Will Win: Troy Katsur — Another awards circuit favorite, Katsur has charmed critics, colleagues, and audiences alike with his passionate portrayal of the deaf father in CODA. Should Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee — While Katsur is terrific, his role is more showy than the understated, smarter-than-he-seems young man played with an exquisitely subtle slow burn by Smit-McPhee in Campion’s masterful drama.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Nominees: Ascension/Flee/Writing with Fire/Attica/Summer of Soul
Will Win: Summer of Soul; Should Win: Attica. Another race in which I’d be happy if either my “Will” or “Should” takes the statue. Both are equally powerful and deserving.
ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Nominees: Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley/Ari Wagner, The Power of the Dog/Janusz Kaminski, West Side Story/Greig Fraser, Dune/Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Will Win: Fraser, Dune; Should Win: Laustsen, Nightmare Alley. While the mournful Wadi Rum desert scapes of Dune stun with their vastness, I prefer Nightmare Alley‘s unsettling, rich throwback noir look.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM:
Nominees: Drive My Car (Japan)/Flee (Denmark)/The Hand of God (Italy)/Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)/The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Will Win: Drive My Car; Should Win: The Worst Person in the World. Since Drive My Car probably won’t prevail in the Best Picture category, it’s likely it will win here instead, and I’m glad to see it win something (it’s #7 on my Top 10 list). However, I didn’t see Worst Person until recently, but, had I seen seen it before compiling my list back in December, it definitely would received a higher spot on my list than Car.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Nominees: Sian Heder, CODA/Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter/Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog/Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car/John Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, and Eric Roth, Dune
Will Win: Heder, CODA — Fresh from its win at the Writers Guild Awards and the BAFTAs, Heder’s Sundance feel-good family drama has the edge. Should Win: Hamaguchi and Oe, Drive My Car — In a remarkable feat of screenwriting, Hamaguchi and Oe were able to adapt Haruki Murakami’s short story into an immensely watchable three hour film while maintaining the source materials’s emotional impact. (Side note: I’d also be happy if Lost Daughter or Power of the Dog wins, but why Dune got a nomination is beyond me. Cinematography, sure, but writing!? I’ve read IKEA instructions that were more interesting.)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Nominees: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast/Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up/Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World/Zach Baylin, King Richard/Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Will Win: Branagh, Belfast — Academy voters probably won’t let Branagh’s critically acclaimed loosely biographical look back at the Troubles of his childhood go empty-handed, so expect it to take this prize. Should Win: Vogt and Trier, The Worst Person in the World — Branagh’s film left me a little cold, but Vogt and Trier immersed me so fully in the life of their floundering protagonist Julie that I was moved to tears more than once. And that Renate Reinsve, whose portrayal of Julie was one of the most moving performances of 2021, failed to garner a Best Actress nomination when Kristen Stewart got a spot is one of this year’s great cinematic travesties.
———————
And if you’ve missed any of the Best Picture nominees, once again the good folks over at Honest Trailers have prepared their hilarious take on the nominees, which is a great cheat sheet:
