Film critics Carrie and Chad on who will – and who should – win the 96th Academy Awards
The 96th Academy Awards air tomorrow, Sunday, March 10th, on ABC at a new, earlier 4:00 pm PST start time. Friendly reminder to fellow film fans: don’t forget to spring forward for daylight savings, or you might miss the start of the show! Below, Spinning Platters film critics Carrie Kahn and Chad Liffmann share their predictions and thoughts for the major categories. Although we feel smug when our picks win, we don’t mind some upsets to keep things interesting! You can print your own ballot here. Good luck to all!
BEST PICTURE:
Nominees: American Fiction/Anatomy of a Fall/Barbie/The Holdovers/Killers of the Flower Moon/Maestro/Oppenheimer/Past Lives/Poor Things/The Zone of Interest
Carrie: Will Win: Oppenheimer — Having already picked up Golden Globe, DGA, PGA and SAG wins, Oppenheimer will close out its triumphant award season by nabbing its biggest prize. Should Win: Anatomy of a Fall — Number one on my Top 10 list last year, the unforgettable French drama epitomizes excellent filmmaking.
Chad: Will Win: Oppenheimer; Should Win: Oppenheimer. It’s inevitable. After running the tables at the PGA, SAG, DGA, and Golden Globe Awards, Oppenheimer is the critical box office and thematically relevant tale for 2024.
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING:
Nominees: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer/Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall/Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon/Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest/Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Carrie: Will Win: Nolan, Oppenheimer — Nolan won the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Award, a fairly reliable predictor in this category. He’s been nominated in this category twice before and left empty-handed, so this is his year. Should Win: Triet, Anatomy of a Fall — Triet’s masterful picture delivers on so many levels, proving that human drama can be just as fascinating-if not more so-than atomic explosions.
Chad: Will Win: Nolan, Oppenheimer; Should Win: Nolan, Oppenheimer. He’s due, and voters will realize that awarding a director for one of their best films is an unusual occurrence–so mark this as good fortune.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Nominees: Bradley Cooper, Maestro/Colman Domingo, Rustin/Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers/Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer/Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Carrie: Will Win: Cillian Murphy — Murphy won the SAG award among a host of others, indicating that his peers loved his complex, cerebral performance. Should Win: Paul Giamatti — Giamatti channels a career’s worth of unlikable sad-sacks into the best performance of his career. Plus, don’t we all want to see him return for a double-double after the show?
Chad: Will Win: Cillian Murphy; Should Win: Andrew Scott (not nominated) — It’s a shame that Scott’s heart-wrenching, vulnerable performance in All of Us Strangers didn’t make the cut. However, Murphy’s decades-spanning performance is truly remarkable and will be awarded on Oscar night (sorry, Giamatti–you’ll have to wait, yet again).
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Nominees: Annette Bening, Nyad/Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon/Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall/Carey Mulligan, Maestro/Emma Stone, Poor Things
Carrie: Will Win: Lily Gladstone — Lily Gladstone has the momentum, having won the SAG. If she wins, she’ll be the first Native woman to earn the Award-and Oscar voters love to create history. Should Win: Sandra Hüller — I’d be happy to see Gladstone win, but her role in Flower Moon was limited by being bed-bound. Hüller’s performance is both commanding and inscrutable.
Chad: Will Win: Lily Gladstone; Should Win: Lily Gladstone. This could very well be the only Oscar that Killers of the Flower Moon goes home with, surprisingly. Not surprising is that it would be for Lily Gladstone, whose magnetism draws the audience to her, even when playing against Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro. Her stoic, yet no less complex, performance will be remembered for a long time, and not just because the history she’ll make on Oscar night as the first Native American Best Actress winner.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Nominees: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer/Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple/America Ferrera, Barbie/Jodie Foster, Nyad/Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Carrie: Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph — With multiple wins under her belt already, Randolph is another given, so this category may be a snooze. Should Win: Anyone but Emily Blunt — The real puzzle here is why Emily Blunt is in this group. She was barely in Oppenheimer, and when she was, she had little to do in a thankless role. If you twisted my arm, I’d admit I’m rooting for Jodie Foster, whose crackling performance in Nyad was one of the year’s best.
Chad: Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph; Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph. As I said in my review of The Holdovers, Randolph is the heart and soul of the film, and she’s deserving of the award for a supporting performance that harnesses the power to ground and emotionally stabilize the leading characters.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction/Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon/Rober Downey Jr., Oppenheimer/Ryan Gosling, Barbie/Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Carrie: Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. — Like the Supporting Actress category, this one is also a lock. Downey has prevailed endlessly already on the awards circuit, and the Oscar is his to lose. Should Win: Sterling K. Brown — Brown’s underrated, emotionally raw performance in American Fiction deserves more acclaim.
Chad: Will Win: Robert Downey Jr.; Should Win: Mark Ruffalo. This is the “career” award of the night, given to an acclaimed actor for a solid performance in order to honor and recognize the long (and better) list of previous performances. Robert Downey Jr. has this award wrapped up, and that’s a shame because Ruffalo’s zany performance as a promiscuous scoundrel lawyer is an absolute treat.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron/Elemental/Nimona/Robot Dreams/Spider-Man: Across the Universe
Carrie: Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Universe; Should Win: Elemental. Spider-Man’s animation is more unique, but Elemental’s story has more heart.
Chad: Will Win: The Boy and the Heron; Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Universe. Both films are deserving. Hayao Miyazaki already won in 2001 for his masterpiece, Spirited Away, and the first Spider-Verse film won as well. So, it’s a toss-up!
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Nominees: Four Daughters/20 Days in Mariupol/To Kill a Tiger/The Eternal Memory/Bobi Wine: The People’s President
Carrie: Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol; Should Win: 20 Days in Mariupol. A timely story of war journalism in Ukraine, this Sundance Audience Award winner and PBS Frontline production has earned well-deserved praise from audiences and critics alike.
Chad: Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol; Should Win: Beyond Utopia (not nominated). 20 Days in Mariupol is as relevant and important a documentary as there has been in years. That being said, Madeleine Gavin’s hard-to-believe accomplishment Beyond Utopia should have been in the conversation.
ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Nominees: Edward Lachman, El Conde/Rodrigo Prieto, Killers of the Flower Moon/Matthew Libatique, Maestro/Hoyte van Hoytema, Oppenheimer/Robbie Ryan, Poor Things
Carrie: Will Win: van Hoytema, Oppenheimer; Should Win: van Hoytema, Oppenheimer. van Hoytema’s jaw dropping, breathtaking work capturing the first atomic bomb explosion let us viscerally understand what it means to become Death, Destroyer of Worlds.
Chad: Will Win: van Hoytema, Oppenheimer; Should Win: van Hoytema, Oppenheimer. This film looks incredible, and will be rewarded for it. The Trinity Test will go down in history as one of the most thrillingly orchestrated scenes of the 21st century.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM:
Nominees: The Kindergarten Teacher/Perfect Days/Io Capitano/Society of the Snow/The Zone of Interest
Carrie: Will Win: The Zone of Interest — The Holocaust film divided critics, and since it won’t win Best Picture, Academy voters will no doubt award it here. Should Win: Perfect Days — German director Wim Wenders invites us to celebrate the simple joys of day-to-day living in this lovely, poignant picture featuring a performance from Japanese actor Koji Yakusho, who should have received a Best Actor nom.
Chad: Will Win: The Zone of Interest; Should Win: The Zone of Interest. The Zone of Interest is, in my opinion, the most important film of the year. It may compete in other categories against the behemoth that is Oppenheimer, but as for the International Feature category (sans Anatomy of a Fall), it’s a shoe-in.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Nominees: Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie/Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer/Tony McNamara, Poor Things/Cord Jefferson/American Fiction/Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Carrie: Will Win: Gerwig and Baumbach, Barbie; Should Win: Gerwig and Baumbach, Barbie. Considering the outrage over the absence of Greta Gerwig and her star Margot Robbie in the Directing and Actress categories, Academy voters will most likely award the film the writing prize for its pointed, funny, and clever screenplay.
Chad: Will Win: Jefferson, American Fiction — American Fiction is another film that the Academy will look to reward somewhere on Oscar night, so this may be its best bet, and a worthy award for Cord Jefferson’s debut. Should Win: Gerwig and Baumbach, Barbie. That being said, Barbie blew away everyone’s expectations, and its two acting nominations, for Gosling and Ferrera, are partly due to the brilliant performances, but more due to well-written jokes and profound monologues, respectively.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Nominees: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall/David Hemingson, The Holdovers/Celine Song, Past Lives/Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik, May December/Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, Maestro
Carrie: Will Win: Triet and Harari, Anatomy of a Fall; Should Win: Triet and Harari, Anatomy of a Fall. The year’s best movie is unlikely to win Best Picture, and since it wasn’t submitted for Best International Feature, Academy voters will recognize its brilliance with this award.
Chad: Will Win: Triet and Harari, Anatomy of a Fall — The French courtroom drama is wooing audiences, and since it was overlooked as an International Feature entry (good thinkin’, France!), consider it a front-runner in the screenplay race. Should Win: Song, Past Lives — Past Lives was too brilliant to go home empty-handed. This could be one category where the Academy may reward it.
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And if you’ve missed any of the Best Picture nominees, the good folks over at Honest Trailers have once again prepared their annual tongue-in-cheek look at the nominees:
